Moment of silence for the 239 lost souls on board this tragic flight.
What we do know
What makes this different from every other catastrophe in modern aviation is that there was no distress call from pilots, and a sudden, complete loss of radar contact. With radar, air traffic can see every airplane's position (altitude, airspeed, heading). A hijacking is also very unlikely - the pilots would know something was up and follow hijack procedure F.A.R 6-4-3 - a verbal distress call 'TRANSPONDER SEVEN FIVE ZERO ZERO' and setting a special squawk code 7600. It would take some time for hijackers to break down cockpit door.
If there was some mechanical problem, flight data would have shown a descent or change in airspeed. Even if a collision with another aircraft occurred, we'd expect to see this.
Most Catastrophic Explosion in aviation history?
Only practical explanation is an explosion so catastrophic and violent that no primary target (metal reflected in sky) or secondary target (transponder / ADS-B on-board the aircraft transmitting a signal) remained. In a similar incident, the Challenger disaster, large pieces of the shuttle fell out of the sky, easily identified on primary radar and visually. So even this explosion theory is a stretch.
Could be caused by a new type of explosive (terrorist attack)? Or catastrophic mechanical failure? The 777 fuel system is designed against this possibility.
Flight Data Analysis
Flight Data Analysis
The event occurred 1PM 3/8/2014 ET so approximately 48 hours ago. This is the ADS-B flight data from secondary target tracking: (read about primary vs secondary radar targets)
We can see at 12:01PM the aircraft reaches 35,000' cruise altitude, reports again at 12:03PM, and no report at 12:03PM. Radar contact is lost exactly 1 minute after reaching cruise altitude. There is no indicated loss of airspeed or change in heading. Just dead silence.
We can see at 12:01PM the aircraft reaches 35,000' cruise altitude, reports again at 12:03PM, and no report at 12:03PM. Radar contact is lost exactly 1 minute after reaching cruise altitude. There is no indicated loss of airspeed or change in heading. Just dead silence.
ADS-B Spoof Hack
This 777 flight was reporting its position via digital ADS-B, a relatively new system. It's possible the ADS-B signal has been spoofed by hackers and the flight was never in that region, it's sitting on remote tropical island now. ADS-B is known to not be a secure protocol.
In most parts of the US, air traffic can see airplanes with both, as primary and secondary targets, so if an airplane turns off its transponder to go 'dark', we still see the metal in the sky as a green dot on radar. Outside of US, this type of coverage is rare. In this region, a mandatory reporting point exists at IGARI. This is where the pilot radios is position to air traffic. This would indicate they don't have primary radar.
In most parts of the US, air traffic can see airplanes with both, as primary and secondary targets, so if an airplane turns off its transponder to go 'dark', we still see the metal in the sky as a green dot on radar. Outside of US, this type of coverage is rare. In this region, a mandatory reporting point exists at IGARI. This is where the pilot radios is position to air traffic. This would indicate they don't have primary radar.
Stolen Passports
Too much attention has gone to the stolen passports. Seems relatively easy to board a flight with a stolen passport and probably happens more often than we want to believe. More likely a simple case of petty immigration smuggling.
Terrorist Attack Probability
Malaysia's population is > 60% Islam but there are plenty of examples of such attacks.
Inside Job
Since it seems unlikely that hijackers are capable of deploying that type of explosive on board, or disabling the crew so quickly, could it be an inside job?
Wingtip Collision Incident
In 2012, damage to this aircraft's wing occurred while taxing. This is not uncommon, and repairs were made. Even if this lead to complete separation of wing-tim from fuselage, certainly there would be time for a quick distress call, and indication of loss of altitude, airspeed, before the airframe exceeded structural limitations and broke up into large pieces. I believe this is another useless, misleading piece of data.
a minor incident while taxiing at Shanghai Pudong International Airport in August 2012 resulted in significant damage to one of its wingtips, which broke off after striking the tail of another plane.
SAM or AAM attack
A missile attack is not out of the question. See list of prior commercial airlines downed by missiles. Lots of military activity in that region. A very powerful payload could have disintegrated the plane.
Recovery of black box
Given that ocean currents move 10s to 100s kilmetres per day, the debris would have after 48 hours drifted up to 200km, so we may never find the flight recorder. However, the ocean is only about 200' deep in that region and the blackbox have audio pingers, so eventual recovery should be possible. The air France crash recovery was difficult due to tremendous ocean depth.
The lack of ACARS data is equally mysterious.
The lack of ACARS data is equally mysterious.
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