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About CO2 and the Truth, Beauty and Fear in Mathematics

A bright, young scientist invents a space ship that can finally travel faster than the speed of light. He bravely sets out on the first mission to find intelligent life. Only a few hours later he returns, startled.
"I found an alien species! Almost as advanced as ours. They have been evolving for the thousands of years making great progress in technology and medicine, and one day, they decided to light a great fire. Not one, but millions, around the whole planet.
They, can clearly see the skies are turning black, and the damage is irreversible. In fact all the top alien scientists are warning to put the fires out. But they just keep throwing more stuff on the fire.

The black skies have upset their alien seas. Great walls of water are destroying their cities, endless droughts are ruining the food, millions of them are dying from these catastrophes. But they just keep throwing more stuff in the fire.. These aliens have lost their mind! In 50 years they will all be dead" We must never return to this planet. They call it Earth."



CO2 today is at an astonishing 404.93 ppm (parts per million). it seems just weeks ago that we surpassed 400ppm for the first time.

There has been a lot of talk and graphic images of ice melts, polar bears drowning, floods and hurricanes.  But for me.. the most awakening moment was when I saw this table below:

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

2015   1    2015.042      399.98      399.98      399.81     30
2015   2    2015.125      400.28      400.28      399.52     27
2015   3    2015.208      401.54      401.54      399.95     24
2015   4    2015.292      403.28      403.28      400.39     27
2015   5    2015.375      403.96      403.96      400.57     30
2015   6    2015.458      402.80      402.80      400.46     28
2015   7    2015.542      401.31      401.31      400.92     23
2015   8    2015.625      398.93      398.93      400.77     28
2015   9    2015.708      397.63      397.63      401.07     25
2015  10    2015.792      398.29      398.29      401.65     28
2015  11    2015.875      400.16      400.16      402.27     27
2015  12    2015.958      401.85      401.85      402.65     30
2016   1    2016.042      402.52      402.52      402.35     27
2016   2    2016.125      404.04      404.04      403.27     26
2016   3    2016.208      404.83      404.83      403.23     29
2016   4    2016.292      407.42      407.42      404.53     25
2016   5    2016.375      407.70      407.70      404.31     29
2016   6    2016.458      406.81      406.81      404.47     26
2016   7    2016.542      404.39      404.39      404.00     28
2016   8    2016.625      402.25      402.25      404.09     23
2016   9    2016.708      401.03      401.03      404.46     24
2016  10    2016.792      401.57      401.57      404.93     29



Look at the 6th column at the bottom, reading 404.93. Now move our eyes up, you're looking at 2016, then 2015. When I looked at this chart, more than ever, I froze, startled. I felt fear and helplessness. The truth is here. There is no room for arguments or discussion with a numerical table. It does not talk back. It does not melt and re-freeze. It is observed, measured. Truth with a capitol T.


Source: NASA

What the hell are we doing?

Elon Musk so elegantly put it:  People are running "the dumbest experiment in history"


He's referring to the burning of fossil fuels. Last year we released 40 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels like oil and coal.

Let's stop and think about this for a moment.

Scientists forecast by 2060 there will be no more fossil fuels left. These fossil fuels are about 850 million years old. In the course roughly 100 years, we're going to burn through 850 million year old supply of nasty, ancient, black, carbon deposit. All of it. Every last rock. And by we, it's the whole planet doing it, all at the same time. How stupid are we?


The Experiment
What happens if I light this old IPhone on fire?
This is a stupid experiment. But you can get a new iPhone. And you know the outcome, it will probably burn so you'll take precautions.

What happens if I drill a small hole in my brain and remove a little bit of tissue?



This is a really stupid experiment. You don't know the outcome, and there is no recourse. Wouldn't you want to at least try it.. on a monkey first?

We're performing the brain experiment on our planet. We saturate the atmosphere with an element that traps heat, and increase the temperature a few degrees. We have no idea what will happen because it's never been tried.




The only predictions we've gotten from top scientists are really scary ones. Exactly 0 scientists predict that global warming will be a positive change. Shouldn't we try it on another planet? Nah, let's drive right in guys and use our own planet for this.

We're doing the dumbest experiment of all time, on the atmosphere. You know..the only thing that separates us from, yeah, the fricken universe.

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