The facts have been carefully reviewed and there is simply no rational explanation. And we are in search of rationalism in a case like this.
With that established, then we can conclude that the only rational explanation is that the facts are inaccurate or incomplete. This is a subtle but important distinction, because instead of focusing on examining the shooter based on the facts, we can focus on examining the facts themselves and look for out-liar.s.
1008PM Shooting starts
1013PM "the police started to zero in on the upper floors of Mandalay Bay about five minutes after the shooting began"
1021PM Police say "still taking fire"
1024PM Police gather near room
1124PM "It would be almost another hour, however, until officers would break into Paddock's room. He appeared to have stopped shooting by this point."
The time line makes sense up 1024PM. Why did the police wait an hour to break down the door? There re 22000 people below and 60 bodies already at this point.
I can't think of any logical explanation. They were likely acting on orders from someone above, they were not acting out of fear, especially since the shooting had stopped. Whoever gave that order will likely be questioned.
With that established, then we can conclude that the only rational explanation is that the facts are inaccurate or incomplete. This is a subtle but important distinction, because instead of focusing on examining the shooter based on the facts, we can focus on examining the facts themselves and look for out-liar.s.
Timing Inconsistency
The timing is not rational. The timeline is as follows:1008PM Shooting starts
1013PM "the police started to zero in on the upper floors of Mandalay Bay about five minutes after the shooting began"
1021PM Police say "still taking fire"
1024PM Police gather near room
1124PM "It would be almost another hour, however, until officers would break into Paddock's room. He appeared to have stopped shooting by this point."
The time line makes sense up 1024PM. Why did the police wait an hour to break down the door? There re 22000 people below and 60 bodies already at this point.
I can't think of any logical explanation. They were likely acting on orders from someone above, they were not acting out of fear, especially since the shooting had stopped. Whoever gave that order will likely be questioned.
Rational Explanations
Paddock was mentally ill.
Given the complexity of this attack, it indicates Paddock was a highly functional human being. He planned this at minimum a week in advance, checked into the room Thursday, smuggled 100s of pounds of ammunition into the rooms undetected. FALSE
Paddock was on drugs/alcohol
Drug/alcohol related shootings are impulsive, this was highly per-meditated. Not indicative of substance abuse. FALSE
Paddock was having money prolbems
Millions of people have money problems, in fact, the average american carries $16000 in credit card debt. And 1000s of peple go to vegas every week and lose money. While losing money is depressing, planning an event of this magnitude. FALSE
Paddock was angry at society and wanted to prove a point
If his objective was to prove a point, then the shooting would be his megaphone. But he would not have killed himself in silence without leaving behind a Manifesto or some message. FALSE
Paddock was hired by someone else
If an organization was outsourcing the killing they would have chosen someone else, someone who was desperate for money. A retired rich white guy is possibly the worst person to try to win over with money to do your bidding. FALSE
Probable assumptions
There are some assumptions we can make based on the location alone (one of the only facts that is verifiable true)- The location was carefully selected to allow for the highest death toll. The concert is an annual event so likely he thought of this more than a year ago. Where else within driving distance of his home town is a more suitable location for an act of terror like this?
- He did not have a message - simple to prove because if he had a message he would have said it.
- He did not target anyone specifically - he was after a high body count most likely, not a specific group of people, otherwise he would have chosen a different venue.
- Not impulsive he had to book 2 rooms, and he spent 4 days in the rooms before committing the act, slowly moving weapons and ammunition up to the rooms. This is very different from, say a night club shooting, which could be an impulsive act.
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